Box Office Predictions: Zootopia 2 vs. Wicked: For Good

Picture this: the holiday movie season is gearing up to be an epic showdown at the box office, with Disney's Zootopia 2 potentially challenging the Thanksgiving records set by Moana 2, and Universal's Wicked: For Good building up steam that could shatter musical movie openings. It's a thrilling time for film fans, but buckle up – we're about to dive into the nitty-gritty of tracking trends and predictions that could make or break this festive lineup. But here's where it gets controversial: Will the crossover appeal of these films create a win-win situation, or will they cannibalize each other's audiences in a battle for holiday dollars?

Welcome to our detailed six-week box office analysis and outlook, published on October 17, 2025, by Shawn Robbins from Box Office Theory. For the complete breakdown, including all the detailed ranges and pinpoint forecasts, head over to our Substack newsletter at https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/6-week-box-office-tracking-and-forecasts-zootopia2-115-130-rival-moana2-thanksgiving-wicked-for-good-155. Let's break down the essential factors influencing these projections and the reasoning behind them, starting with the powerhouse Thanksgiving weekend.

First up, November 26th looms large as another blockbuster holiday period. Disney's Zootopia 2 is stepping in as the major animated release from a big studio since The Bad Guys 2 hit theaters in August. To put this in perspective, the original Zootopia in 2016 raked in a whopping $75.1 million domestically on its opening weekend – that's still the sixth-highest ever for an original story-driven animated film (meaning it's not based on existing intellectual property like superheroes or franchises). This year, however, the animated landscape feels a bit sparse compared to 2024's hits like Inside Out 2 and Moana 2, which were massive events. So, there's a pent-up hunger for something special, especially with the goodwill from the first Zootopia, which grossed $341 million in the U.S. and a staggering $1.02 billion worldwide. And with the holiday season stretching from Thanksgiving right through Christmas and New Year's, audiences have plenty of time to flock to theaters.

That said, competition is heating up. Last year's overlap between Wicked and Moana 2 might have diluted some excitement, but Wicked: For Good (the sequel we're tracking closely) is outperforming its predecessor in pre-sales at this stage and could draw in even more crowds early on. For newcomers, pre-sales are like tickets bought ahead of time – they're a strong indicator of buzz. While Wicked might pull in some family viewers who overlap with Zootopia 2, it's worth noting that families often see multiple movies during the holidays, and Wicked tends to attract more adult women due to its musical and fantasy elements. Zootopia 2's real kid-focused rival won't arrive until December with Paramount's The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants. And this is the part most people miss: the timing could actually boost overall attendance instead of hurting it – a controversial take, but one backed by past holiday patterns where diverse offerings expand the pie rather than slice it up.

On the counter-programming side (that's when smaller films offer alternatives to the big releases), A24's Eternity, a romantic drama starring Elizabeth Olsen, Miles Teller, and Callum Turner, is set for a Thanksgiving debut. It’s already winning praise at film festivals, so it could lure in A24's dedicated fanbase as well as couples looking for a cozy date-night option over the five-day holiday frame.

Also hitting theaters then is Rian Johnson's Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery. Netflix's approach to theatrical releases is still evolving, but we expect at least a five-day window with a similar number of locations as their 2022 film Glass Onion. Box office numbers will likely come from unofficial reports, as Netflix doesn't always share them openly.

Shifting gears to an exciting update on Wicked: For Good: This sequel is showing no signs of slowing in its pre-sale momentum, outpacing the original at the same point in its release cycle. While we can't fully predict how much extra boost comes from last year's cultural phenomenon, it's shaping up to be one of the strongest musical premieres ever. Could it even touch Beauty and the Beast's $174.8 million opening? Only time will reveal that, but the excitement is palpable.

Now, let's turn to our six-week box office calendar, tracking, and forecasts as of October 16, 2025. Remember, these are based on current trends and could change with new developments. For the full ranges and exact pinpoint predictions, paid subscribers can access them in our Substack newsletter at https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/6-week-box-office-tracking-and-forecasts-zootopia2-115-130-rival-moana2-thanksgiving-wicked-for-good-155.

Box Office Predictions: Zootopia 2 vs. Wicked: For Good - Who Will Reign Supreme? (2025)